How are interest rates set -- a common question received by those who broker loans. The first thing most clients or prospective clients will ask is "how are rates doing?" Or, "what rate can I get?" It's understandable as the interest rate determines in large part as to what your monthly payment will be. Fundamentally, the interest rate is what you pay the lender in exchange for their lending you the money for your home loan.
How Are Rates Set?
So, how are rates set? Generally speaking, the longer the loan the more the risk to the lender and consequently the higher the rate. Of course, it's not as simple as that for there are a number of factors that determine how rates are set. Here's the nitty-gritty as to how your California home loan interest rate is set. There are three fundamental forces that determine interest rates in the United States. They are:
The Federal Reserve
The Bond Market
Multiple Forces in The Economy
The Federal Reserve
The "Fed" as it is commonly called determines US monetary policy for the entire country. There was no central federal banking system in the US from 1783 to 1913 but that all changed with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Ostensibly, it is the central bank of the US. Don't let the term "Federal Reserve" throw you -- it is NOT a federal US government institution or department.
It is a privately-held organization. There are 12 regional Federal Reserve System banks throughout the US. In addition, the Federal Reserve seeks to constantly adapt its various monetary policies in a concerted effort to combat inflationary and deflationary pressures brought about due to changes in the domestic or global economy. The Federal Reserve Board members meet eight times a year and generally only changes rates during a meeting. The 12-member Federal Reserve Board can control interest rates by changing the rates it charges banks to borrow money.
Here's how it can influence rates. The Federal Reserve loans banks funds from their district Federal Reserve bank who pledge their commercial paper as collateral. The Fed essentially charges the borrowing bank interest on the loan. This is called the discount rate. Banks or lenders then lend the consumer or borrower money charging their primary interest rate. The implications are self-evident. The higher the discount rate the Fed charges the bank, the higher the primary interest rate will be to the borrower as the bank wants to meet the minimum requirements as well as make a profit.
Many people think that when they hear the Federal Reserve Chairman make a monetary policy change with the Prime rate, it automatically affects interest rates. Not so. The Prime rate increase or decrease may affect a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC), but it wouldn't affect interest rates. Interest rates also fluctuate with the various loan programs available to the borrower. (For more information on Loan Programs within this site, please click here.)
The Bond Market
The bond market fluctuates on a daily basis and is a major determinant in the setting of interest rates. In fact, one can actually guess with an astonishing degree of accuracy as to any movement within a business day if there will be a rate adjustment, whether up or down, based on what the bond market is doing, specifically the 10 year bond. For clarity's sake, there a couple of different bonds that affect interest rates. They are:
The 2 Year Bond
The 5 Year Bond
The 10 Year Bond
The 30 Year Bond
The primary bonds that affect interest rates are the 10 year and the 5 year bond. To see actual, real time fluctuations in the bond market, go here at http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/ to see current prices for bonds. This is the one I view daily. The bond market is highly volatile. How do you read the graphs so as to know if interest rates will have a spike downward or upward?
While looking at the 10 year price graph (the farthest one on the right), if the 10 year price has a massive swing upward from say 99 28/32 to 103 28/32, rates most likely will have a decrease from current levels. On a daily basis, California loan agents receive rate sheets from lenders (we work with over 400 lenders so they are plentiful).
If the bond market fluctuation merits an increase or decrease in the loan broker's yield spread premium (their rebate), it will in turn affect the interest rate that is quoted to a client, which in this example would be a lower rate. If the bond price doesn't have much of a fluctuation during a normal business day, the rate will not move. Every day, in the morning, rates are received in the office. If a price adjustment is required, the primary lenders will immediately issue an adjustment rate sheet to their broker partners.
As I've said, interest rates are set based on the yield in the bond market at any given time. Let's show an example. If, for example, a $100,000.00 bond falls in value to $95,000.00, the corresponding yield (return) is significantly higher. Because the yield is higher, the prevailing interest rate that is set for the mortgage must offset the higher yield and provide a return on the mortgage for the lending institution. With all things being equal, the rates on fixed rate mortgages would tend to rise.
Multiple Forces in The Economy
There are many factors influencing interest rates for your California home loan in the US economy. Higher interest rates can cause fluctuations in the stock market which in turn affects the bond market. In fact, the bond market and the stock market are opposite sides of the same coin. One can't move without the other. If the US Dollar rallies, bonds dip; when oil prices dip, bonds can as well. Generally speaking, when the bond market is up, the stock market is down. In addition, if economic news is worse or better than expected, it will cause a fluctuation in the US dollar currency pairs in the spot Foreign Exchange market (the FOREX), which can affect the bond market and in turn rates.
A quick example. A couple of weeks ago from this writing, the US New Jobs report was projected at 350,000 -- it only came in at 10% of that or 35,000. Once the report was announced, literally IMMEDIATELY the GBP/USD currency pair (Great British Pound and US Dollar) spiked upward. The GBP dramatically increased in strength with the US Dollar becoming weaker. One FOREX trader I know literally made $3,500 in five minutes as he projected the claims to be much less than expected.
Also, interest rates dropped that day due to the lackluster jobs report. Coming into the office that day, a wise loan agent would have locked some loans or at the least knew interest rates would had gone down that day. Truly, the US economy is a highly interdependent organism that is very fluid and dynamic -- it is never static or motionless. Some of the key economic indicators that affect the economy, and in turn interest rates, are:
Durable Goods Orders
New Home Sales
US Trade Balance
Jobless Rate
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Fed Chairman Greenspan Speech Before Congress
The key economic indicators that can affect the bond market with corresponding fluctuations are:
Consumer Confidence
Retail Sales
Manufacturing Activity
Industrial Production
Jobs Growth
Inflation
There you have it. There are many forces at work in determining what your rate is on any given day. So the next time you ask a loan agent, "what are rates like today?" You'll see there's a lot behind it.
EASY FOREX Headline Animator
Thursday, October 1, 2009
What to Learn As a Forex Currency Trading Beginner
If you are a Forex currency trading beginner, your first order of business is to get yourself informed. Forex trading can truly be highly profitably. However, without knowing its essentials, you will not earn one single dollar from it and may even lose your investment.
Do you know that the Forex market is the biggest financial market in the world? You may think that the stock market is big enough, but it can not quite measure up the size of the Forex market. Even if you add the futures market to the stock market, the Forex market would still have a bigger amount of money being traded every day.
In the past, the market was a playing field only for the big shots who could present millions of dollars before they were allowed to trade. Today, the presence of online trading companies has opened the FOREX market to those who do not have millions but could afford to dish out thousands of dollars as beginner traders.
In its simplicity, Forex trading is to buy and sell different currencies in the world. You buy one currency while sell another. As such, currency trading always involves pairs, and quotes of currencies also come in one currency against another. The major players include the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD), the Euro and the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD), the U.S. dollar and the yen (USD/JPY) and the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar (AUD/USD).
The advantage of Forex trading is multi-folded. The transactions are fast because everything is electronic. You also are assured that there are often people who would want to trade with you. This is simply because there are so many people who are trading everyday and every hour of the day. You can buy and sell at anytime whenever you want to.
Perhaps the biggest attraction of Forex trading is its leverage. With a nearly unbelievable ratio of 200:1, you leverage capacity is simply huge. With very minimal initial cash you can already manage a large amount of currency. This is probably the main reason why the market is quite attractive for those who want to increase their earnings impressively.
It is wrong, however, to think that you can immediately get rich in Forex trading. People can lose too in currency trading. Those who do are often those who act impulsively with the hopes of getting rich instantaneously. If you do not take the time to learn the inner wheels of Forex trading and the technical aspects of leveraging, then you could lose everything you have put into currency trading.
For any Forex currency trading beginner, the best way to dive into this game is to get well-prepared in terms of knowledge, practice, budget and psychology. If you are just an average player, you can pick an online company who offers virtual trading with imaginary currencies without any substantial cost or loss on your part. So, position yourself as a beginner and start by playing small, you can improve quite quickly and steadily.
Do you know that the Forex market is the biggest financial market in the world? You may think that the stock market is big enough, but it can not quite measure up the size of the Forex market. Even if you add the futures market to the stock market, the Forex market would still have a bigger amount of money being traded every day.
In the past, the market was a playing field only for the big shots who could present millions of dollars before they were allowed to trade. Today, the presence of online trading companies has opened the FOREX market to those who do not have millions but could afford to dish out thousands of dollars as beginner traders.
In its simplicity, Forex trading is to buy and sell different currencies in the world. You buy one currency while sell another. As such, currency trading always involves pairs, and quotes of currencies also come in one currency against another. The major players include the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD), the Euro and the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD), the U.S. dollar and the yen (USD/JPY) and the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar (AUD/USD).
The advantage of Forex trading is multi-folded. The transactions are fast because everything is electronic. You also are assured that there are often people who would want to trade with you. This is simply because there are so many people who are trading everyday and every hour of the day. You can buy and sell at anytime whenever you want to.
Perhaps the biggest attraction of Forex trading is its leverage. With a nearly unbelievable ratio of 200:1, you leverage capacity is simply huge. With very minimal initial cash you can already manage a large amount of currency. This is probably the main reason why the market is quite attractive for those who want to increase their earnings impressively.
It is wrong, however, to think that you can immediately get rich in Forex trading. People can lose too in currency trading. Those who do are often those who act impulsively with the hopes of getting rich instantaneously. If you do not take the time to learn the inner wheels of Forex trading and the technical aspects of leveraging, then you could lose everything you have put into currency trading.
For any Forex currency trading beginner, the best way to dive into this game is to get well-prepared in terms of knowledge, practice, budget and psychology. If you are just an average player, you can pick an online company who offers virtual trading with imaginary currencies without any substantial cost or loss on your part. So, position yourself as a beginner and start by playing small, you can improve quite quickly and steadily.
Forex Online Trading Course
Are you looking for a highly successful Forex online trading course? This trillion dollar market is the largest volume trading market in the world, with money changing hands between a wide variety of participants every day that includes large financial institutions, investment firms and small investors like you and me.
Most of the currency rate movements are caused by the large financial players due to changes in demand and supply in different currencies. As these transactions are being made, smaller investors like institutions and single investors can profit from the activity by speculating in the direction of movement of the currency rate.
1. Signing Up for a Forex Online Trading Course
Before you can expect to make any money from the currencies market, you should get a good education first by joining a Forex online trading course. These types of courses will give you a good idea of how the markets work in general and help you realize the dangers as well as the potential profits that can be made trading the Forex.
2. Profiting with Forex Automated Trading Software
If you have absolutely no experience but you want to start making money immediately, you can choose to download automated software that can start making money automatically while you learn how it trades the market.
3. How to Start Profiting from the Forex Market?
You will need to sign up for a live account to start making real money with Forex trading. If you have no idea of how your trading system works yet, you should get a demo account to practice on it and get familiar with it first.
4. How is Forex Online Trading Different from Trading other Financial Markets like the Stock Market?
The currencies market is much more liquid and provides much more margin for profit due to increased leverage. It is extremely liquid compared to the stock market, and you can be sure that your trades will be successfully executed as there are always buyers and sellers, unlike certain stocks that can be very illiquid.
Most of the currency rate movements are caused by the large financial players due to changes in demand and supply in different currencies. As these transactions are being made, smaller investors like institutions and single investors can profit from the activity by speculating in the direction of movement of the currency rate.
1. Signing Up for a Forex Online Trading Course
Before you can expect to make any money from the currencies market, you should get a good education first by joining a Forex online trading course. These types of courses will give you a good idea of how the markets work in general and help you realize the dangers as well as the potential profits that can be made trading the Forex.
2. Profiting with Forex Automated Trading Software
If you have absolutely no experience but you want to start making money immediately, you can choose to download automated software that can start making money automatically while you learn how it trades the market.
3. How to Start Profiting from the Forex Market?
You will need to sign up for a live account to start making real money with Forex trading. If you have no idea of how your trading system works yet, you should get a demo account to practice on it and get familiar with it first.
4. How is Forex Online Trading Different from Trading other Financial Markets like the Stock Market?
The currencies market is much more liquid and provides much more margin for profit due to increased leverage. It is extremely liquid compared to the stock market, and you can be sure that your trades will be successfully executed as there are always buyers and sellers, unlike certain stocks that can be very illiquid.
Currency Exchange Terms Every Forex Trader Should Know
Before jumping into the forex market, you need to arm yourself with some terminology that will be used in any course or software on this subject. The following set of terms were put together with the idea of providing the novice forex trader with the fundamental concepts of the forex trading business. While they sound technical, most are easy to understand and apply.
Let us begin with the instruments that are traded in the forex markets. Currencies are traded in pairs so the instrument will always be in this double denomination. The reason for this is simple; the basis of forex currency trading is to exchange one currency for another. So if the pair is the Euro and the US Dollar, and the forex trader is taking a long position or buying the Euro in hopes that it will appreciate, effectively the trader is also selling US Dollars to buy the Euros. The most widely traded pairs are the Great Britain Pound and the US Dollar (indicated as GBP/USD), the Euro and the US Dollar (the EUR/USD pair), the Aussie Dollar and the US Dollar (AUD/USD pair), the USD and the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY pair), and the Canadian Dollar and the USD (USD/CAD pair). These pairs account for well over 80% of the total volume of the trading in the forex market. The advantage to trading in these currency pairs is that they are highly liquid and allow the investor to convert their portfolio to cash very quickly to realize a profit.
In every pair, the first currency is called the base currency, over which the second one is countered to imply the price of the pair, or commonly referred to as the "cross currency". The second is therefore called the quote currency and the pair price is recorded in terms of the units of the quote currency required to buy one unit of the base currency. Thus, assuming the price of the GBP/USD pair is 1.5, this implies that 1.5 USD will buy 1 GBP.
Every pair is quoted in terms of a bid ask spread. The bid price is the rate at which your forex broker bids to buy the currency at, while the ask price is the rate the forex broker is asking to sell the currency to the forex trader. The bid price will always be less than the ask price and the forex trader will buy at the ask price and sell at the bid price. The bid ask price will be quoted as: GBP/USD 1.532/5, meaning the bid price is 1.532 and the ask price is 1.535.
A pip price interest point), as it is commonly called, is the smallest incremental change a currency pair will experience, for instance, a change in the GBP/USD price from 1.532 to 1.542 is a change of 10 pips. A trading margin is a deposit which is a minimum amount or a small percentage of your traded amount that you have to put up. The remaining amount is supplied by your broker. This amount can vary from 1% to 0.25%, also referred to as 100:1 and 400:1. Most often, forex brokers will offer 100:1 or 200:1 to most clients. This is risky but enables the trader to leverage a large amount that he or she would not otherwise have access to.
Finally, a margin call can happen when the forex trader allows the balance in the trading account to go below the margin deposit percentage agreed upon with the forex broker. The broker will automatically sell your long positions or buy your short positions and clear the entire trading account, returning the margin amount to the trader to protect the trader from losing more money than they have.
Let us begin with the instruments that are traded in the forex markets. Currencies are traded in pairs so the instrument will always be in this double denomination. The reason for this is simple; the basis of forex currency trading is to exchange one currency for another. So if the pair is the Euro and the US Dollar, and the forex trader is taking a long position or buying the Euro in hopes that it will appreciate, effectively the trader is also selling US Dollars to buy the Euros. The most widely traded pairs are the Great Britain Pound and the US Dollar (indicated as GBP/USD), the Euro and the US Dollar (the EUR/USD pair), the Aussie Dollar and the US Dollar (AUD/USD pair), the USD and the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY pair), and the Canadian Dollar and the USD (USD/CAD pair). These pairs account for well over 80% of the total volume of the trading in the forex market. The advantage to trading in these currency pairs is that they are highly liquid and allow the investor to convert their portfolio to cash very quickly to realize a profit.
In every pair, the first currency is called the base currency, over which the second one is countered to imply the price of the pair, or commonly referred to as the "cross currency". The second is therefore called the quote currency and the pair price is recorded in terms of the units of the quote currency required to buy one unit of the base currency. Thus, assuming the price of the GBP/USD pair is 1.5, this implies that 1.5 USD will buy 1 GBP.
Every pair is quoted in terms of a bid ask spread. The bid price is the rate at which your forex broker bids to buy the currency at, while the ask price is the rate the forex broker is asking to sell the currency to the forex trader. The bid price will always be less than the ask price and the forex trader will buy at the ask price and sell at the bid price. The bid ask price will be quoted as: GBP/USD 1.532/5, meaning the bid price is 1.532 and the ask price is 1.535.
A pip price interest point), as it is commonly called, is the smallest incremental change a currency pair will experience, for instance, a change in the GBP/USD price from 1.532 to 1.542 is a change of 10 pips. A trading margin is a deposit which is a minimum amount or a small percentage of your traded amount that you have to put up. The remaining amount is supplied by your broker. This amount can vary from 1% to 0.25%, also referred to as 100:1 and 400:1. Most often, forex brokers will offer 100:1 or 200:1 to most clients. This is risky but enables the trader to leverage a large amount that he or she would not otherwise have access to.
Finally, a margin call can happen when the forex trader allows the balance in the trading account to go below the margin deposit percentage agreed upon with the forex broker. The broker will automatically sell your long positions or buy your short positions and clear the entire trading account, returning the margin amount to the trader to protect the trader from losing more money than they have.
Best Forex Trading Education
There are many forex trading courses and educational material that a person can find online. However how does someone go about finding the best Forex trading education information? Certainly there are huge amounts of information that will educate you about Forex trading, but not all of it will help you to achieve your goals of making a profit rather than losing.
Below are some guidelines which should help you to find the best forex trading education course
Point 1 - Avoid Day Trading Systems
Many people when starting out in Forex trading will be enticed into thinking that the best way of making money is through day trading. Certainly if you were to ask a person who is selling a Forex trading course for details relating to their real time track record with regard to profits relating to day trading they will not be able to provide one to you.
So if you are looking to produce an income from your trading then do not waste your time on day trading.
Point 2 - Real Time Profit Records
When buying any sort of forex education course, you need to be provided with these records. If a person selling their system does not have confidence in the abilities of their system and are not investing their own monies then why should you. Unfortunately some of these courses being offered online today are from people who have either never traded in their lives or have failed when they have used the system themselves.
Point 3 - Understand It
Once you find a forex trading system which either has a track record or is willing to show their real profits then there are some other things which you will need to take into consideration.
It is important that you learn everything you can about the system in question so that you understand it completely. Unfortunately if you have no understanding of how the system works then you will not have the confidence to trust in it and follow the system through to a likely conclusion if you start to suffer losses.
By keeping these points in mind, you will find the best Forex trading education
that is suited to your kind of personality. There are literally hundreds of places on the web that can offer you an education as well as free advice on Forex trading so do some investigating and you will soon find one that is ideal for you.
Below are some guidelines which should help you to find the best forex trading education course
Point 1 - Avoid Day Trading Systems
Many people when starting out in Forex trading will be enticed into thinking that the best way of making money is through day trading. Certainly if you were to ask a person who is selling a Forex trading course for details relating to their real time track record with regard to profits relating to day trading they will not be able to provide one to you.
So if you are looking to produce an income from your trading then do not waste your time on day trading.
Point 2 - Real Time Profit Records
When buying any sort of forex education course, you need to be provided with these records. If a person selling their system does not have confidence in the abilities of their system and are not investing their own monies then why should you. Unfortunately some of these courses being offered online today are from people who have either never traded in their lives or have failed when they have used the system themselves.
Point 3 - Understand It
Once you find a forex trading system which either has a track record or is willing to show their real profits then there are some other things which you will need to take into consideration.
It is important that you learn everything you can about the system in question so that you understand it completely. Unfortunately if you have no understanding of how the system works then you will not have the confidence to trust in it and follow the system through to a likely conclusion if you start to suffer losses.
By keeping these points in mind, you will find the best Forex trading education
that is suited to your kind of personality. There are literally hundreds of places on the web that can offer you an education as well as free advice on Forex trading so do some investigating and you will soon find one that is ideal for you.
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